| | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Trends
2020 Future Vision TREND - Dinosaurs Rule
In 2020, fossil fuels will remain the dominant form of energy despite increasing concerns about global warming. With all the hype about renewable energy, all forms of renewable energy will represent only an 8 percent share of world energy in 2020. (See figure --) IMPLICATIONS As presented graphically above most of the predicted increased energy demand will continue to be met by oil, gas and coal in 2020. Nuclear power with 6 percent share and all the renewables with only 8 percent share will not have a major impact on the energy picture. Unfortunately, as a result, energy- related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will rise dramatically. Indeed, the rise in CO2 emissions has been estimated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) at between 25 and 57 percent above the 2005 level of 27 giga-tons, depending on the proposed actions by governments to save energy and cut emissions. This CO2 rise will exacerbate our severe global warming and air and water pollution problems. (As discussed in the World Trends Environment chapter.) Emissions trading is an approach used to control polution by providing economic incentives for achieving reductions in the emissions of pollutants It is sometimes called cap and trade. Due to emissions trading, coal and oil might become less competitive as fuels. A central authority (usually agovernment or international body) sets a limit or cap on the amount of a pollutant that can be emitted. Companies or other groups are issued emission permits and are required to hold an equivalent number of allowances (or credits) which represent the right to emit a specific amount. The total amount of allowances and credits cannot exceed the cap, limiting total emissions to that level. Companies that need to increase their emissions must buy credits from those who pollute less. The transfer of allowances is referred to as a trade. In effect, the buyer is paying a charge for polluting, while the seller is being rewarded for having reduced emissions by more than was needed. Thus, in theory, those that can easily reduce emissions most cheaply will do so, achieving the pollution reduction at the lowest possible cost to society. PREDICTIONS There will be growing demand from the developed countries to take vigorous, immediate collective action to curb runaway energy demand of new players in global energy markets China and India however will insist on their obligation to acquire more energy in order to contribute to a real improvement in the quality of life for their more then two billion people. CO2 emissions will rise about 33% -from 27 giga-tons in 2005 to 36 giga-tons by 2030 mainly due to slowing economic growth and only modest conservation efforts by the large developing nations. The International Energy Agency will push for the “450 Stabilization” alternative policy scenario which recommends governments cut CO2 emissions to 450 parts per million (ppm) which some scientists and policy makers suggest is an acceptable concentration. I predict that the world will meet the 450 Stabilization policy (See Coal TIP) Bakken oil shale reserves exagerated These reserves around North Dakota. seemed like the anawer to the US energy problems with claims about somewhere between 200 billion and 500 billion barrels in situ, but a estimates of between 2.5 and 4.4 billion barrels recoverable, as an outer limit will prove more realistic
TREND - Hallowing Not Halloween for marketing tricks and treats
Remember the line from the psalm – Hallow be thy name…. Hallow means to honor or regard. How about hallow be thy brand as an effective inexpensive consumer marketing tool. I love when someone credible promotes me, my books, or my consulting or speaking services. Indeed, most of my business comes via word of mouth. Getting others to say the good things is much more believable than you blowing your own horn. Moreover, with increased global migration all over the world purchasers rely more on people they trust to help them make buying decisions in their new country. Those companies and products that all hallowed – talked & texted about positively by family, friends and trusted associates will be the winners. HALLOW BE THY BRAND is of particular importance in immigrant communities. For example, while studying consumer behavior in the field for a baking company. I noticed a potential immigrant buyer acting confused with all the choices in this large supermarket bread aisle. He was walking up and down the aisle squeezing the packaged bread. I asked him why and he told me he had only a few choices in his country and did not know which bread to bring home so he thought that the bread that felt best would be his choice. I reported this to my client who began advertising in ethnic newspapers that successfully touted his brand to this new market. Who is saying good things about you, your products and organization? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Copyright © 2013 Minkin Affiliates
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
